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Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-19T03:09Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-16 17:06
 - Time at C2: 2023-10-16 12:09
 - Radial speed: 720.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N13E45
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 622.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-10-19 03:09 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.02 hours)
Lead Time: 82.17 hour(s)
Difference: 28.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-10-16T21:20Z
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